HANDICAPPING THE PUBLIC PART FOUR "WHAT DICTATES WAGERING"

To those of us that not only play this game every single day, but watch it even more closely, we realize that a few things dictate wagering, regardless of circumstances. Each race presents its own puzzle, its own handicapping dilemma if you will, so using one sole factor to handicap a race is simply a losing proposition. Long before I was around, somebody said I bet my horse can run faster than your horse, which is what led to horse racing. What they didn’t realize then and seemed to pass on to many generations, is that the fastest horse doesn’t always win the race. I’m sure when they first started, the smarter horseman would say well you beat me at 4F because your horse is quicker, but if we go 6F I can run you down. That kind of thinking would be logical one would think, but it’s far from that when it comes to wagering. To this day, the most common over bet favorite is the fastest horse in the race, yet we all know that horse fails to win anywhere close to 100% of the time.

Whether you use final time, speed ratings, or speed figures, if these are the only things that you factor into your handicapping, slowly but surely over time you will lose. Fact of the matter is, if these horseman knew they couldn’t beat the favorite, nobody would enter the races, and they certainly wouldn’t allow wagering on it. Sebastian K is arguably the greatest trotter at least of my lifetime and some will say ever, and sometimes they don’t allow you to bet show money on him because he’s not likely to finish 3rd. But even the great one’s have their day, as Sebastian K went up to Canada and the rains came and he just didn’t have it on that day when Intimidate blew up the toteboard. But the public had already determined that the race had been run because his final times, speed ratings, and speed figures if there is such a thing in harness racing had said that he couldn’t lose. And while he may never ever lose again, at least I for one can say I never lost a wager on Sebastian K, I’ve never made one.

That brings me to my next point, I love to bet against those horses that can’t lose. Most of those horses fall into the category of having the fastest Beyer figure (or Timeform), the fastest speed ratings, or the fastest final time. These 3 things essentially make up 75-80% of your favorites in racing now days, and it’s astonishing the other factors get discounted. Think about it, if I said, you can only bet one jockey today in every race, would you like every horse he’s riding? Unless it’s Paco Lopez on a summer day at Monmouth, chances are you wouldn’t like more than half the horses that particular jockey is riding. If I told you that a certain trainer had 8 horses in 10 races today, would you bet him every single time? Of course you wouldn’t because you know the days where a trainer wins 8 of 10 races just don’t exist. Limiting yourself to one set of criteria for betting on a horse is simply limiting your chances of winning. But the public feels that the fastest horse in the race should be favored every single time, knowing that they are only going to be right 1/3rd the time when he wins. All this kind of thinking does is play the hands of the handicappers that use other factors, most of which are far more useful for the particular race being run, not the general assumption of how all races are run.

For example, the last race on Sunday we got to see one of the most bizarre betting boards I’ve ever seen at Saratoga. Now I picked 3 MORE EVERYTHING, and had lost the few races I liked most earlier on the card and wasn’t screaming for a get out race. Essentially I had no interest in the last race from a betting standpoint so I had decided before hand I wasn’t going to wager but instead wandered around to meet a friend that I haven’t got to meet before. So upon meeting him, we got to talking and then they loaded in the gate and he said oh I want to watch this race, so we turned to the screen when he asked me who I liked. I said I picked the 3 on the sheets I give out, but I’m sure the 7 for Pletcher is going to be tough, he’s probably favored. That 7 was COSTENIA, when he crossed the line well clear of the rest of the field, he looked the part of a Pletcher $3.80 winner. But because the public bet the “fastest” horse in the race on paper, and he wasn’t a $3.80 winner, instead he trounced this field at odds of 6-1? I turned to my friend, mind you with no notes or anything at this point as I was done for the day and said, Pletcher is 77% dropping from MSW to MCL from 31 starters this past year, how in the world did that horse go off at 6-1, and pay $14 to win. Mike Beer, who hit the Pick 4 that day ending with that race, came on Talking Horses the next day and agreed that it was the most bizarre thing he had seen from a wagering stand point in some time. But this is far more common than you would think. What happened was they bet the fastest horse in the race 1 LITTLE MISS BROWN, and while I have no idea what his speed figures are or what not because I don’t use them, I’m sure he had the highest Beyer, the highest Speed Rating, and the best final time for the distance they were running at. What they missed, and I’m not saying I had it because like I said I didn’t pick the 7 as my Top Choice but rather 3rd, was something as simple as a trainer change on a horse dropping in class. Previously Trained by Oussama Aboughazale, now trained by the sport’s super trainer, Todd Pletcher, 7 COSTENIA had exited four MSW races before dropping to maiden claiming, a move that was hitting the ticket 77% of the time for Pletcher, meaning he should have been favored in my opinion because no other factors separated these horses all that much. But because the 1 was a giant underlay, this one became a giant overlay.

I rambled a bit to get to my point this week which is that one angle simply can’t be the determining factor of wagering because all that one angle does is create overlays. If they ran Hambletonian 2014 100 times, Father Patrick probably does win 70-80% of them at least, but they only run once and on Saturday it was Trixton’s day, and he was a gigantic overlay at 4-1 as by far the 2nd best trotter in the race. Just from a standpoint of Nuncio’s chances whether Father Patrick broke or not being relatively close to that of Trixton’s was laughable. Same thing with the Whitney as arguably the best handicap horse in the country just did no running, and he’s still the fastest horse in that race perhaps and probably has the best Beyer of any of the others, but don’t quote me on that as I simply don’t know. Now I realize that some of these favorites deserve favoritism and Father Patrick was one of those, and so was Palace Malice over the weekend, but they didn’t know the public pushed all their chips into one basket and relied on them to win, nor do they care that you lost money if you bet them.

By determining the fastest horse in the race, you then can determine if his odds actually assess his chances of winning. I talked in Part One about making a ML and I know some people think it’s an impossible science, but I tend to disagree whole heartedly. I believe the public is as simple to figure out as whether a kid is going to like candy or vegetables. Obviously, because of the number of races being run each day their surely are going to be outliers as well as circumstances where obscure money comes in for reasons unknown. But generally speaking the public relies on this list when it comes to betting, and because they want to be right, they could care less about the price.

PUBLIC FAVORS HORSES WITH

FASTEST FINAL TIME- if he ran the fastest last time, he will run the fastest this time too-MYTH

FASTEST SPEED FIGURES- He ran a 97 last time, the next best horse ran 86, it’s not close -MYTH

BEST TRAINER/JOCKEY COMBO- they win 42% of the time together, they can’t lose -MYTH

HORSES THAT RUN ITM MOST- he has run 2nd/2nd/1st/3rd he can’t LOSE this race today -MYTH

Personally, I have my own criteria for making a horse my “favorite” and its race dependent and never relies on one single determining factor. But assuming that all horses left in the equation are equal, here is how I would rank them.

CLASS- those who know me or read my write-ups understand that Class is King, Class is King, and Class is King. If you don’t believe me then go find all the fastest turf mile races in the last year, and then tell me why none of those horses even sign up to race against Wise Dan.

FINAL TIME- I do believe final time is a very important aspect of handicapping, but you have to know how to use it to your advantage. Not all tracks run races at a 1 mile, exactly one mile. Not all 1 Mile tracks have the same configuration. Not all track conditions suit the same as another track conditions. Final Time is very important, but it’s far more complex than the number in the program, or they wouldn’t put that number in the program. Think about it, a 1:36 for a mile would be good time for say a 4YO Allowance horse at Saratoga on the dirt, but if he did it while chasing 6 wide against the speed horses who got the shortest trip around the track and had to change paths mid-stretch just so he didn’t run into another horse, wouldn’t that be more important than the horse that won going 1:35 with a perfect trip hugging the rail as if it were a Calvin Borel video game?

TRAINER- I list this one separate from jockey and slightly above because I’m under the slight belief that the trainer’s play a bigger role than the jockey. All the time we see jockey changes make a difference, but I think trainer changes are more important in today’s racing.

JOCKEY/DRIVER- I think that the combination of a trainer and jockey can be a key element but I also think the single factor of who is riding/driving can be impactful. For example, over the weekend I like many other people liked WHERE’S DANNY at Saratoga. I would have needed 12 or 15-1 to bet that horse though because of his jockey, and I liked his chances and picked him on top. At 4-1 with a low % jockey in Andre Worrie it was an easy throw out for the race as a massive underlay. Obviously sometimes this works against you, but betting a horse because of a jockey, isn’t a good idea in the long run, but playing against a horse because of a jockey, can be a good idea.

ODD ANGLES AND STATS- Some horses just have no form, some have no races that make them competitive, some haven’t even raced in some time, but there are stats for all of these. The important thing about using stats which I find very crucial in today’s racing is knowing when to use them and it’s as imperfect science as anything in the game which is why I list this criteria on the bottom. The fact of the matter is that stats can go both ways on just about every horse/trainer/jockey in every race. Certain stats can’t be ignored, but others have nothing to do with the particular race that is being run. For example, I was against the Rudy firster the other day that romped for Michael Dubb because Rudy has had an atrocious year with first time starters. But if you thought well Rudy/Dubb together do a good job then 12-1 was a steal. That angle works in reverse as well though which is what makes it so tough to gauge how important a stat is. That is why I use stats generally to separate horses that are ranked similarly or equal to that of the other horses I’m trying to separate. Believe me, if I get Rosario instead of Corey Lanerie on horses that I find pretty equal elsewhere, you know who I’m going with. I think far too often because we have so many stats available to us each day we tend to rely on them instead of the horses running. Some stats carry far more weight than others, but most have nothing to do with the race itself. Often times these stats can dictate wagering as we see with Pletcher and his firsters at Saratoga, but another 3-5 lost the other day for him and you can bet the next one will be short odds once again because one race doesn’t affect the stat enough. I have to tell a story one time about a guy at OTB who said to me, look these two team up 6 of 12 times together that’s 50% he’s 10-1 I have to bet him. I looked down at my paper and I had the same stat, I wrote was 6 for 6, 0 for last 6, play against today. I always say, the stat is in the eye of the beholder, best of luck at the track everyone.

KEITH ROSINTOSKI

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#partfour