LEGEND BETS NFL REVIEW WEEK 1
From a betting standpoint, Legend Bet Members went perfect on the week in the NFL, unfortunately, that perfect was 0 and 5. But the goal is long term, and the law of averages says that 0-5 two weeks in a row is probably impossible, meaning a winning a week is in the works for Week 2. More importantly than assessing the numbers and wagers from the past week, is learning what happened so the same mistakes aren’t made in the coming week. Understanding that losing is just part of winning can go a long ways in this game.
We learned a lot this week, and we’ll begin where it all started, at the top with Seattle. Nothing we saw on Thursday night suggests the Seahawks took a step backwards and they remain the favorites to win the Super Bowl. Russel Wilson continues to prove that a brain is needed to operate as a small QB in the league, even though Johnny Manziel disagrees, but that’s why he’s on the bench. The Seahawks defense gave a very good QB in Aaron Rodgers fits all night, and GB shot themselves in the foot which you can’t do against good teams, or really good teams when you are on the road. I strongly suggest not sitting Aaron Rodgers next week in fantasy, he owes us loyal owners now. In the end, Seahawks needed no help from replacement refs to decide this one as Seattle covered with ease.
In other news, the public surely is ready to overreact to a Week 1 defeat from Tom Brady and company as the Dolphins won a division game at home, nothing crazy. The way it happened was a bit more unbelievable but I wouldn’t worry quite yet, the Patriots will be just fine and I’m sure the Dolphins needed that win more anyways. That’s my sour grapes for picking NE -3.5 as road dogs.
Kansas City showed why Andy Reid is so high on his team, or was that he’s high on his team? Either way, the Chiefs must have missed Dwayne Bowe or something because after scoring the 1st 3 points, the offense did nothing getting outscored 26-7 at home by the Titans. I doubt we’ll ever remember these Titans though, and these two look like they could be on the wrong end of some results going forward. Free Pick in this game was KC -3, which means it’s a good thing you didn’t have to pay for that pick.
Peyton did what Peyton does best in the 1st half on Sunday putting up the first 24 points, but the bettors got the old back door as Indy thoroughly outplayed Denver after the result was long over and they ended up covering. Don’t overreact to the score line though, the AFC South favorites are not close to the level of the Broncos, but I hope the public thinks they are better than they are. Andrew Luck can’t throw to himself though, and he surely can’t lead the team in rushing TD’s the whole season.
How bout them Cowboys? The 49ers said to everybody that said they aren’t as good as they were the past two years, we are still better than the Cowboys. Jerry Jones showed as always that he’s still better at making business decisions then football ones, by picking up Michael Sam. It’s tough to blame Jerry for this one but it’s tough not to turn on a Cowboys game and laugh out loud at least once these days. Keep in mind as you watch America’s Team the rest of the year that Jerry Jones sent out playoff tickets to all season ticket holders, he forgot to tell them they won’t be watching the Cowboys. I made my annual bad pick on the Cowboys +4.5 early this year to get it over with. The 49ers man handled the Cowboys in the first half, and then shut it down with the rest of the season in mind and the score wasn’t an indicator of how lop-sided this game was.
RG3 fortunately already had endorsements because he’s sure not getting any more now days. The most overrated player the league put up what the media will portray as gaudy numbers so that he can live up to their own hype, but it’s just not reality. The reality is, he was never a pocket passer, and even though he scrambled for a few yards as a rookie, his long term success was always a doubt in my mind at least. Hopefully he remains the starter just long enough to screw up some more fantasy football leagues, but it’s time we stop blaming the injury and whatever else you want to blame, he is below average and he’ll show it every time he plays. Don’t turn on ESPN who will still highly tout the below average QB and show that he went 29 for 37 with no interceptions. But they won’t say that’s well below average as with no TDs and 8 receptions to Desean Jackson who is supposed to be the down field threat, but finished 3rd in Rec Yards in Week One. The good news for the Redskins is that 2nd place in the division isn’t impossible, right Giants and Cowboys?
In my opinion, the upset of the weekend came in Buffalo who always seems to get fans excited early so that they come back next year with more high draft picks at the beginning of the season. The Bears seemingly had a defense that couldn’t get worse and an offense that continues to get better, and I picked them to win the Super Bowl. Surely that is the reason they got beat this week and unfortunately the schedule doesn’t allow for them to lose games like that, and they now have a huge game against SF coming up. Cutler will get most of the negative attention like always, and he’ll fight through it like always. The Bears won’t have just 3 2nd half points in any game the rest of the year, and you can bet on that. The Bills rushed for around 8 yards per carry between the tackles, and it’s tough to lose football games like that, they aren’t going to keep that up though.
The Ravens don’t deserve to be talked about right now, so I won’t talk about them. But the Cincinnati Bengals on the other hand proved that kickers do matter, sometimes. Not scoring in the red zone and winning football games is not very easy to do and sooner or later somebody at WR is going to have to step up or it will literally catch up to them.
J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS! Seriously though, they need to stop putting the Jets on TV, they should black out the games in an effort to help viewer ratings. It’s really tough to watch Geno Smith, and even tougher to listen to fans that think he’s the answer. This team has a long season ahead of them, and unfortunately they can’t play a team traveling across the country for an early kickoff every week. The Raiders may have found another talented player and this time at QB, but the odds he lasts there long enough for them to surround other talent are seemingly low.
If you’ve never heard of Allen Hurns, don’t worry, you probably won’t again. Before the Eagles heard of him he had 2TD. After they learned who he was, he didn’t even catch a pass. In a league of overreaction, the Eagles did nothing but take care of business after arriving late to the 1PM game at home. This offense is still lethal, and the defense gave up 3 points in the final 3 quarters, and they seem like a lock to go on and win this division, but that’s why they play the games I suppose.
The game started and ended the same way scoring wise, with Suisham Field Goals. The Steelers needed both to survive the always tough in division Week 1 game. 1 game is in the books, meaning only 15 more to go for my prediction of Johny Manziel getting 0 snaps this year. Hoyer didn’t do much, but he doesn’t have much to work with and they stayed competitive, and he will remain the starting QB this entire season barring an injury.
The Rams and Vikings was the worst game of the week, and I feel sorry for the Rams losing Bradford again this year, but then again they are built on defense and gave up 36 points. I don’t think either will threaten for any playoff spots this season and both will struggle against better teams.
I put the Saints on upset alert before Sunday’s games kicked off, my thinking was that too much $$ was on the Saints who weren’t favored when the game opened. I hope you didn’t buy the hype and take 5.5 point difference between opening and closing lines like most of the public did. The Saints gave up tons of yards to the dirty birds and Matt Ryan welcomed back Julio Jones who is going to have a monster year. The Falcons offense may not be as bad as the defense of the Saints, but both remain foes for arguably, the best division in football.
The Giants are in trouble this year too, and the Lions again look like a team with promise, but we’ve seen that act before. Coughlin is already fed up and the “new offense” was well, offensive to those who like offense. I don’t think they’ll win too many games this year, and I don’t think the Lions are as good as the Giants made them look.
Arizona found a way to win at home against SD who was outscored 12-0 in the final quarter to end Week 1. They failed on both 2PT conversions, and that was probably the most interesting thing that happened in the entire game.
I’ll end with my team, the Carolina Panthers who went on the road without Cam Newton and got a big in division win to start the year. I think I’m biased enough to say that this is the best defense in the NFL, but I’m smart enough to realize the Seahawks have that honor. What they don’t have is the best LB in the game in Kuechly, but Carolina does and he’s an absolute joy to watch if you are a pure football fan, and yes some players still play defense in this league. Derek Anderson proved that a serviceable backup is needed in this league sometimes and he played quite well, like he always has when called upon. Benjamin showed he’s a good enough wide out to make an immediate impact and he’s going to get the bulk of the attention from the defense each week which should lead to a big year for Olsen. He too is hoping that Cam is back next week though, as the Panthers seem to have a positive 2014 outlook behind one of the best defenses in the game.
With Week 1 in the books, and my picks going 0-5, Week 2 can’t come soon enough. At least no matter what happens this week, I can’t be any worse.