EAGLES AT COWBOYS THANKSGIVING DAY PREVIEW
NFC EAST THANKSGIVING PREVIEW
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT DALLAS COWBOYS -3.5 +105
Arguably the most overrated team in the NFL visit what I have believed to be since early in the season, one of the 5 best teams in the NFL on this fine Thanksgiving day. Currently in my rankings the Cowboys sit at 3rd behind the Packers and Patriots, just slightly ahead of Denver and Seattle. My rankings suggest that against every team in the NFL besides the Packers and Patriots on a neutral field, the Cowboys would be favored. Currently in my rankings, the Eagles are tied for 11th along with the Miami Dolphins, leaving GB, NE, DEN, SEA, SF, AZ, DET, IND, BAL, KC all ahead of them in no particular order. It comes as no surprise to me that the Cowboys are favored in this game, but a bit surprising is by how much they were favored. I believe personally the Cowboys should be -3.5, on a neutral field, and in Dallas I believe in this game they should be favored by almost a TD. Vegas disagrees and I think it’s a huge opportunity for us to back Dallas this week.
The Eagles have the best special teams efficiency in the league this year, and partly because of the weak opponents that they have been playing. Prior to last week, there had been just one kickoff returned for TD’s all season in the 1st quarter, and none on the first kickoff in a game. The Eagles had the only 1, and turned that number into 2 when Josh Huff took it to the house against the Titans to start the game. Now while good special teams is always key, perhaps the Eagles has been too good. According to Elias Sports, the 10 Defensive/Special Teams TDs scored by the Eagles, they became just the 2nd team to do so in the first 11 games of the season, along with the 1976 Denver Broncos. To put it into further perspective, they have double the second best team thus far in the season as the Packers have 5.
Eagles fans will be short minded and quick to combat any argument with yea but Lesean McCoy has been running good all year. While McCoy beat up on a bad Tennessee Titan defense last week, he recorded his 1st game of the year with 100 yards and a rushing TD, and he did it in the first half. They didn’t use the zone read run option for the 1st time last week under the Chip Kelly era. I just think they overachieved on the ground last week against a team that ranks, wait for it, 32nd in the league in yards per game on the ground. The Cowboys are significantly better ranked 13th in the league and should be able to stymie some of that success that the Eagles were able to have last week.
The Eagles also were able to take care of home field advantage last week, for the 6th time this year as they are now 6-0 at home on the season. Their opponents in those games? Zero teams over .500, the Jaguars, Redskins, Rams, Giants, Panthers and Titans. Those teams combined are 16-49-1 on the season, that’s less than a .250 Win % if anybody can’t figure out the math. On the road, the Eagles schedule has been tougher, with 5 games currently against teams that were .500 or better prior to last week, and their record shows just that going just 2-3 with the 2 wins against the Texans who are now below .500, and the Colts who have a good record but also benefit from playing in the AFC South that has just one team with a winning record. The losses include teams all ranked higher than them in my rankings, the 49ers, Cardinals, and Packers. Unfortunately for the Eagles, this is another quality opponent they are facing in the Cowboys, another team much higher in my rankings than the teams they have beaten on the road, and close to all the teams mentioned above that were able to beat the Eagles in front of their own stands.
Dallas is having a really good season and while fans are still hoping they have that game where they look like the Cowboys of old, it simply hasn’t happened and it doesn’t appear it’s going to happen this week either. The Cowboys 3 losses, are to the 49ers in week 1, in division against the Redskins on a Monday Night in a game that Romo got hurt in, and on the road at Arizona in a game that Romo missed. And while you could argue the soft schedule of the Cowboys, they did go on the road to Arizona without Romo and they did beat Seattle in Seattle in a game they dominated from start to finish.
The Cowboys are 2nd in the league in rushing and the Eagles are 16th ranked against the run. Demarco Murray will be chasing Emmit Smith’s franchise record in front of the home fans as he searches for his 11th 100 Yard rushing game of the year. While their deficiencies on defense still exist, the defense hasn’t been on the field as much this year making it much better than a year ago. The Cowboys rank 4th in the league in Time of Possession, and any coach will tell you that sometimes the best defense is your own offense. They have been more impressive on the road but don’t think that they won’t be pumped up in Jerry World to take the top spot in the division today. And if it comes down to crunch time, who do you trust, the league’s most efficient 4th quarter QB all season, or Mark Sanchez? Swallow the points here, wash it down with some turkey, stuffing and an ice cold beverage, and have a great Thanksgiving.