MEADOWLANDS LEGEND BETS CARD
MEADOWLANDS LEGEND BETS CARD FRIDAY 11-14-14
Legend Bets Grading Scale
GRADE A- Given when a race has a weak favorite or no true favorite combined with a slew of other horses that have as good of chance. Race must have a complete field of at least 9 or 10 horses to ensure value. The favorite should be a vulnerable horse that doesn’t have a good chance of winning the race at any odds let alone short odds. The more vulnerable the favorite, the better the betting race it is. An A grade is often going to be a Legend Bet Race. These races while rare offer great betting opportunities to the bettor.
GRADE B- Given when a race has more than 2 horses that can win the race and multiple horses that could round out the exotics like trifectas and superfectas. These races generally have two even priced horses that vow for favoritism that isn’t odds on and then some longshots that also have a chance to fill out the tickets.
GRADE C- Given when a race has a strong favorite with no more than 1 or 2 other horses that pose considerable threats to that favorite. These races are important to search for value underneath in exotics rather than trying to beat the favorites for the win. The C Grade can also be given when I have no strong opinions on the race even though it may pay well.
GRADE D- A heavy favorite that looks very tough on paper, and nobody poses a real serious threat to win the race. Shorter fields could also produce a lower grade race because generally there becomes a heavy favorite with not much value in exotics.
TOUGH RACES THAT DON’T HAVE ANY CLEAR CUT CHOICES COULD ALSO BE GIVEN A LOW GRADE ON THE LEGEND BETS GRADING SCALE. EVEN THOUGH THE RACE MAY END UP PAYING A LOT IN THE END, HAVING A GOOD FEEL FOR THE RACE AND A STRONG OPINION IS THE KEY TO BEING SUCCESSFUL AND SOME RACES ARE JUST TOO TOUGH TO COME UP WITH A WINNER SO THEY ARE SIMPLY GIVEN LOWER GRADES OR VIEWED AS SPREAD RACES IN PICK 4 OR PICK 5 SEQUENCES. YOU WILL RARELY BUT ON OCCASION SEE A HIGH GRADE WITH NO WAGERING SUGGESTIONS BUT MORE OFTEN YOU WILL SEE GRADES OF C & D GIVE NO WAGERING SUGGESTIONS OR AT LEAST LESS OF THEM.
TOUGH RACES THAT DON’T HAVE ANY CLEAR CUT CHOICES COULD ALSO BE GIVEN A LOW GRADE ON THE LEGEND BETS GRADING SCALE. EVEN THOUGH THE RACE MAY END UP PAYING A LOT IN THE END, HAVING A GOOD FEEL FOR THE RACE AND A STRONG OPINION IS THE KEY TO BEING SUCCESSFUL AND SOME RACES ARE JUST TOO TOUGH TO COME UP WITH A WINNER SO THEY ARE SIMPLY GIVEN LOWER GRADES OR VIEWED AS SPREAD RACES IN PICK 4 OR PICK 5 SEQUENCES. YOU WILL RARELY BUT ON OCCASION SEE A HIGH GRADE WITH NO WAGERING SUGGESTIONS BUT MORE OFTEN YOU WILL SEE GRADES OF C & D GIVE NO WAGERING SUGGESTIONS OR AT LEAST LESS OF THEM.
FEATURED WAGERS
.50 CENT PICK 5 (RACES 1-5)
12478/37/57/124/24 FOR $60
.50 CENT EARLY PICK 4 (RACES 3-6)
57/124/24/2578 FOR $24
.50 CENT LATE PICK 4 (RACES 7-10) 267/3/1239/245610
RACE 1 GRADE B
My Top Choice is 8 HARLEY MOMMA
Exacta 8/12 12/8
Trifecta 18/18/23467 18/23467/18
1 HILLIAM gets back to the Dennis Laterza barn which is key in my opinion as that barn has hit the ticket a 6 starts this month so far. I think if the 3YO son of Muscle Hill stays trotting he’s a major player, but it’s been some time since he’s won. As a 2YO he went 3 for 3 at the Meadowlands including a NJSS win and while he had big promise as a Hambo hopeful it just hasn’t panned out thus far. Callahan is back in the bike after the human anchor took him around an off track last out at Harrah’s in a race that I think can be tossed. He may need one still and perhaps next week is the better time to try this one. 2 BRITISH STEEL finally draws well and should get a good trip with Ake Svanstedt in the bike. The son of Kadabra should appreciate the mile track at the Big M that he’ll be trying it for the first time. The price probably won’t be 6-1 and this is tougher than what he’s been facing but he’s got early speed so expect him to be pushed off the gate tonight and he’s not without a shot. 3 JOURNEY will appreciate the softer group tonight but with no experience over the track he’s tough to recommend on top. I liked the qualifier over the track a bit, demand a price. 4 OUTBURST could be way over bet off the last effort and I think he really struggles over the big tracks and want no part of him. If he stays flat his best effort probably can win but he’s finished off the board in his only 2 starts over the track and his other 1 mile track efforts were also poor, stay away. 6 BLOCKING THE WAY will be sent from the gate and that’s his best shot, I doubt he lasts but crazier things have happened. 7 DREAM ROCKER will take some money for the Burke brigade and he was okay last time out, but this is tougher, demand a price. 8 HARLEY MOMMA has back races that would bury this field. Trotted home very well in the Hambletonian Oaks and if she can overcome the post could be the main danger as the filly against boys. Kakaley drives for the 1st time and any effort like her last at Hoosier will make her competitive. She may have to leave and that’s my main concern with a bunch of speed drawn inside her but at the 5-1 range or more it’s worth a shot. Selections for this race are 8-2-1-3.
RACE 2 GRADE D
NO WAGERING STRATEGIES
3 MISSION BRIEF clearly the horse to beat but the recent troubles are a major concern considering the price. Breaking in 3 of the last 6 I can’t recommend her but I do think she’s the best in here, by a bunch. Even when she’s right she just looks like she wants to go off-stride. I wouldn’t wager on her but I wouldn’t bet against her in this group either as you are simply hoping she doesn’t stay flat and nobody can really seriously challenge her in here so if she makes the front end they’ll race for 2nd. 5 SMEXI would be a bad wager at anything remotely close to the ML she has. I respect Takter but I’ll be stunned if the favorite stays trotting and this one even makes a race out of it past the half mile. She needs the chalk to break and then some luck and she shouldn’t get your money. 6 LILU HANOVER is better than 5 SMEXI and will likely be a bigger price. If you are playing exotics this one could easily finish in the top 3 in here and if you have a friend who likes 5 SMEXI bet them on the head to head matchup and at least get a nice dinner out of it or something. 7 DANIELLE HALL should be the second choice in the wagering and I think is the most logical should the favorite have any trouble. I think first time on the mile track here at Meadowlands could be a positive as this is a daughter of Hambletonian winner Deweycheatumnhowe. She’s trotted well on the bigger tracks in Canada and I think she can improve here tonight. I can’t suggest wagers for a race with so many inconsistent 2YO trotters but my selections are 3-7-6.
RACE 3 GRADE C
NO WAGERING SUGGESTIONS
1 HEAVENLY BRIDE has been nothing but a bride’s maid but is consistent enough to use in the numbers in here. At 0 for 10 she’s tough to recommend and I wish I knew what the people were betting last time out at Dover but she’ll be a price in here and can certainly hit the ticket. 2 WICKED LITTLE MINX will be a big price but if she saves ground she can get a piece with her nice late kick that she’s shown over this track before. 3 THE SHOW RETURNS proved she was no match for tonight’s favorite last time and I’d have a hard time even recommending her to hit the ticket after that performance. She got a dream trip in the Three Diamonds after moving to the front into slow fractions, but she backed away willingly when they hit the stretch. 4 BETTOR N BETTER is getting Better N Better for Ron Burke and I think she’ll be a price as she tries the Meadowlands for the first time. I think she’ll like the mile as she’s consistently showed fast last quarters and we know the Meadowlands suits that style. 5 JK SHE’SALADY is going to be favored and she should be. The leader in the division is a perfect 10 for 10 on the year including 2 for 2 over this track. She’s got horse of the year waiting for her, but that’s why they run the races. I think she’s vulnerable and the reason is because of her racing style. 7 SASSA HANOVER is the main danger and while I don’t think we’ll see her best shot this week it’s not just coincidence that Gingras chose to drive for Burke and maybe she’s not good enough but I think if she goes down the road off the gate she can make things very tough for the odds on favorite. I’m more looking forward to next week, but I think she should be going off the gate tonight because if she does win she picks her post which could be huge in the final because of her early speed that gives her the tactical edge over 5 JK SHE’SALADY. Selections for this race are 7-5-1-2.
RACE 4 GRADE C
My Top Choice is 1 ACT NOW
Trifecta 1/2478/2478 2478/1/2478
1 ACT NOW is 7 for 9 in the money over this track and that includes 4 wins. Her off the pace style always makes things tough but the inside post tonight should help make up for some of it as I see her sitting closer tonight for the Minister of Speed George Brennan. 2 SAYITALL BB is going to the front when the gate opens for Gingras and will say catch me if you can. I’m not sure they can beat her this week, but perhaps they can soften her up for the final. I wouldn’t touch her at 2-1 or less as I think she’s vulnerable but I suppose she can win. 4 BEACH GAL tries the Meadowlands for the first time and the faster they go early on the better her chances are tonight. She gets David Miller in the bike and that could prove to be a big factor as the one time he rode this one, she won. She’s going to be a big price and could hit the ticket, use in exotics. 7 GETTINGREADYTOROLL probably needed the last start and should be better tonight for Takter with Callahan in the bike. The price should be fair if you like and she’s got 4 wins in 8 tries over the track so she’s not impossible. 8 GALLIEBYTHEBEACH is the wild card and she’s a bad wager at 4-1 but if she drifts and I think she will, you may have to consider. But at 2 for 16 on the year I’ll be taking my chances that she doesn’t win. Selections for this race are 1-4-2-7.
RACE 5 GRADE C
NO WAGERING SUGGESTIONS
2 BEE A MAGICIAN is in here prepping for next week and figures to be a short price. I don’t these horses can beat her but it depends how much they want to use her tonight too as this is clearly a prep. She was used hard from post 9 up at Vernon Downs 2 weeks ago but she does come back to the track she’s never been worse than 2nd at for this prep. 4 CLASSIC MARTINE hasn’t had that success at the Meadowlands but she did prevail in the IMA LULA as the 1-5 chalk but she was in the best form she’s ever been in then and while she can obviously upset 2 BEE A MAGICIAN tonight but I don’t think she is in that form right now. She was used hard last time out as well and raced very well but she’ll need a big effort again to win this tonight. This should be a two horse race and the rest of them are likely racing for 3rd and all you could probably make at least a case for. Selections for this race are 2-4-6.
RACE 6 GRADE A***LEGEND BET RACE***
My Top Choice is 5 HEART MAJOR
WP ON 5 HEART MAJOR
Exacta 5/278 278/5
Trifecta 5/278/ALL 278/5/ALL
Superfecta 5/278/278/ALL 278/5/278/ALL
2 DIVINE CAROLINE is going to be favored but she’s 1 for 9 on the year and 2-1 is a terrible wager regardless of how well the Holloway barn is going right now. She can win and probably should win but I can’t trust her at short odds tonight. 5 HEART MAJOR has won 3 straight but more importantly hasn’t really been challenged in 3 straight. Obviously this is tougher and she’ll have to improve yet again but I think she can with Ron Pierce in the bike for her first try over the track. 7 HAPPY BECKY comes off a nice qualifier where she easily disposed of 2 DIVINE CAROLINE and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if she did it again. My concern is she may need a start but I wouldn’t leave her off. 8 HAPPINESS tries the big track tonight and I think gets completely lost in the wagering. I’m not sure she’s good enough to win but the form is good enough she should be able to threat. Selections for this race are 5-8-7-2.
RACE 7 GRADE C
My Top Choice is 7 WEEPER
Trifecta Box 267
2 COLOR’S A VIRGIN has been superb this year winning 11 of the last 12 and 6 straight for trainer Brian Brown. But let’s not forget outside of the Jugette wins all those wins have come at Hoosier Park. I’m not saying she can’t win as most of those were easy wins but the waters get deeper today and while Trace Tetrick is the best driver at Hoosier Park arguably, he’s just 7 for 162 on the year at the Meadowlands. 3 UFFIZI HANOVER won’t be 4-1, if she is somehow just ask me for a list of charities you’d like to donate too, she has no shot in my opinion. 6 SANDBETWEENURTOES most certainly needs this start tonight but is one to definitely keep an eye on for next week. She adds Lasix for the first time tonight and that’s not usually a positive this late in the season but it could explain the most recent efforts. She comes back to the Meadowlands where she’s 4 for 5 and easily has the best races over this track and at 5-1 even though she needs a race she’s probably worth a wager tonight. 7 WEEPER has been racing well of late winning 4 of the last 6 starts as Ron Pierce looks to make it 2 straight for this one. She was way too much for the 3 last time and even though 5-2 is too short to recommend she can certainly win and looks like the main danger tonight for the favorite. Selections for this race are 7-2-6.
RACE 8 GRADE C***BEST BET OF THE NIGHT***
My Top Choice is ***3 DRAGON LORE***
Exacta 3/468 468/3
Trifecta 3/468/246789
3 DRAGON LORE is going to be the post time favorite and I have no arguments with that logic. He’s got 4 wins and 2 seconds from 10 starts over the track and his back class should show up tonight. 4 SCHOOLKIDS has just 1 win from 9 starts at this track even with Gingras in the bike for Burke it’s impossible to recommend this one. This is the toughest group he’s faced in a long time and while he’s 2 for 2 with Burke I need to see it on this track before I believe it and swallow what is sure to be short odds. 8 ANDREW LUCK fits this class well and gets John Campbell in the bike for Scott Blacklier. The scratched sick worries me a bit so underneath is probably best tonight but crazier things have happened. 6 DADDY MAC has raced well at the Meadowlands in the past and I think is a longshot you have to consider tonight. The 10 year old hasn’t raced well of late but perhaps with the change to David Miller and the softest group he’s faced at this track before he can add some value to the exotics. Selections for this race are 3-4-8-6.
RACE 9 GRADE A***LEGEND BET RACE***
My Top Choice is 9 TWICE AS HARD
WP ON 9 TWICE AS HARD
Exacta 9/123 123/9
Trifecta 9/12310/12310 12310/9/12310
Superfecta 9/123/ALL/123 123/9/123/ALL
1 BETTOR BELIEVE IT adds Lasix for the 1st time and gets Brian Sears in the bike. Andrew Harris and Sears have teamed up 54 times this year, and hit the ticket 66% of the time, so leave them off at your own risk tonight. 2 EARTHSHAKER is a crazy price and I expect David to put this one on the front early and see how far he will go. I think he’s dangerous with that early speed and if you get double digits you have to strongly consider him as he makes his 2nd start over this track. 3 THEREISASPACEFORUS is appropriately placed but I can’t recommend this one at short odds for Takter with Gingras in the bike. He can win but he offers no value and just never does actually win. 9 TWICE AS HARD raced very well in his last two before finding an off track he didn’t like last time out. I think he will appreciate the big stretch at the Meadowlands and could get some pace in here to chase. I think at 5-1 range he’s worth a wager that could offer nice value. Selections for this race are 9-1-2-3.
RACE 10 GRADE B
My Top Choice is 2 DEWYCOLORINTHELINE
WP ON 2 DEWYCOLORONTHELINE
Exacta 2/5610 5610/2
Trifecta 2/45610/45610 45610/2/45610
Superfecta 2/45610/45610/ALL
2 DEWYCOLORINTHELINE is much better on the half mile but finds a soft enough group tonight that he will be a factor. Schnittker’s barn hasn’t been doing well at all but with this kind of a drop you have to consider this one tonight. 5 SWEET JUSTICE also gets some class relief and hall of famer John Campbell back in the bike. He’s 5 for 9 in the money with this horse including 3 wins and I expect him to be competitive tonight. The recent form at Yonkers hasn’t been bad at all if you can look past the miscue last time out. 10 D’ORSAY is going to be the favorite in here and I don’t have a problem with that but post 10 can be tough to overcome. I wouldn’t argue she isn’t the horse to beat but she’s not unbeatable from that post and that’s a concern. 6 LINDY’S TRU GRIT looks dangerous in here and I think you have to use at a price. He’s tough to recommend on top because he hasn’t won this year but I think in exotics he’s worth a look. Selections for this race are 2-10-5-6.
RACE 11 GRADE C
My Top Choice is 9 ODDS ON AMETHYST
Superfecta 9/5/ALL/ALL 5/9/ALL/ALL
Somebody would need to run the race of their life in here to challenge 9 ODDS ON AMETHYST today and I can’t recommend trying to beat him. He’s got 2 wins from 5 lifetime starts over this track and I can expect this one to be very tough tonight. 10 UVA HANOVER is likely the main danger in here but has been done no favors in the post draw. He has back to back nice wins but will have to prove that he likes the big stretch at the Meadowlands. 1 REVRAC HARBOR goes out for Burke with Gingras in the bike and this would be first off the new claim. He seems to be appropriately placed for Burke and I think from the inside post he could easily get a post. 5 MARTINIWITHMUSCLE could get lost in the wagering and I think has a shot to hit the ticket. The concerns are there with the trainer change that I’m not familiar with at all and the 6 weeks off, but Campbell’s in the bike and that’s never a bad thing to have on a longshot. He’ll certainly appreciate facing some softer company as he faced the top trotters all year long and I wouldn’t leave him off. Selections for this race are 9-1-5-10.
RACE 12 GRADE D
NO WAGERING STRATEGIES
1 WILD HONEY is best in here and I’d have a hard time making a strong case for any others. She draws well and with Gingras in the bike for Takter I think they’ll make it 10 straight. The only thing I worry about is they know she doesn’t have to win, but they should want to pick the post for next week to have any realistic shot. The rest of these have question marks but 2 BRIGHT BABY BLUES with David Miller for Joe Holloway can’t be ignored, and neither can Takter’s other 3 SARCY. I think maybe a dangerous price horse for underneath is 4 WICLET HANOVER for Ake Svanstedt but really just for the back end of supers. 5 LIVININTHEFASTLANE is probably going to be the second choice in the wagering and must be used if you are playing this race. She struggled here early in the year but that was against Mission Brief who was 1-5 earlier on this card tonight. 7 STUBBORN BELLE goes out for one of the best trotting trainers in North America in John Bax and first time at the Meadowlands she can take a step forward. But don’t overreact to the effort last time when Mission Brief went off stride as that dramatically effected the race and she’s an underlay at 9-2 in my opinion. Selections for this race are 1-2-5-3.
RACE 13 GRADE B
My Top Choice is 5 DREAMLANDS ART
Exacta 5/239 239/5
.20 CENT PENTAFECTA 5/2/39/123479/123456789 5/123479/2/39/123456789
9 ROCKIN THE HOUSE is 8-5 on the Morning Line and while he appears well spotted for Burke and Giingras and can certainly win, this post will pose no easy task for his racing style. He wants to go forward off the gate and that could be tough in this group from this post he seems to alternate good and bad efforts and that suggests tonight’s won’t be his best effort. 5 DREAMLANDS ART is very dangerous in this spot and returns to the Meadowlands where he hasn’t been bad and has faced arguably tougher than these. Toss the last two starts where he had no shot at Saratoga from outside posts and this consistent 7YO should be poised for a big effort tonight. 3 STALLONE BLUE CHIP comes in off the layoff and needs a start probably but the price might be too big to ignore with Campbell in the bike. He won’t be on Lasix for this start which seems very odd, watch the tote board early as that may help some. 2 CABBIES DELIGHT might take the 1 mile track well in his first start over it for Toscano with Tetrick. Those two have good numbers together and if you are playing exotics don’t leave this one out. 6 DULL ROAR is arguably the class of this race but he’s struggled over this track in the past with just 1 win and 2 in the money finishes from 8 starts. He finds a softer group than he’s been facing of late which should help but he’s too risky at 7-2. Selections for this race are 5-9-3-2.
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