History to be? Or not to be?

June 6th, the sporting world, more particularly the horse racing world, will turn its attention towards another chance at history as American Pharoah plans to etch his name in the books by becoming the first horse in 37 years to complete the elusive Triple Crown. It seems all too familiar as this will be the 2nd year in a row that a horse will show up at Belmont with the same task at hand. But in the race known as the test of a champion, there are far more ways to lose than become a part of history. Just ask the last 12 horses with a chance since Affirmed won in 1978, one of them, I’ll Have Another, even with the drinking public behind him failed to make the gate.

It will be no different this year when American Pharoah breaks from the gate at beautiful Belmont Park, aside from Tom Durkin not calling the race as he did for the last 7 who attempted but failed to achieve victory. Whether Steve Coburn agrees or not, horses who didn’t run in the previous two legs of the Triple Crown will be allowed to run once again this year. While horse racing fans across the country deep down all want to witness another triple crown winner, or the first for many of us, racing wants nothing more than a chance at history every single year. They once more have been granted their wish and while they say Disney is where dreams come true, Belmont Park has become the place where dreams get crushed.

Is it the mile and a half? Is it the wide turns? Is it the Belmont surface? Is it the new shooters? Is it the horses that skipped the Preakness? No. It’s just the Belmont Stakes, the 3rd jewel of the Triple Crown. Let’s face it, if the Triple Crown were easy, everyone would win it. All of the above questions are just a plethora or variables that make this special feat so remarkable. Just like the other 12 who made the gate since the last Triple Crown winner, the public will be quick to acknowledge that American Pharoah is the horse to beat and more than likely to become the next to make history. But don’t let the public decide for you, because outside of possibly having a souvenir winning ticket, history tells us it’s the worst wager you can make. I’m certainly by no stretch of the imagination suggesting that you can’t or shouldn’t root for history though.

As prisoners of the moment in today’s social media world, we’re quick to crown the next big thing and horse racing is no exception. In the betting world, there is no reaction like overreaction, and in horse racing this happens far too routinely. If you go through the last 12 horses that previously had a shot at the Triple Crown you’ll notice a common theme. That theme is that no matter the hype, no matter the talent, no matter the greatness, it can all be forgotten during the test of a champion.

Regardless of which horse you look at closely, they all were going to be tested like they were never tested before. Last year, California Chrome simply was not given the opportunity to run the race the way he wanted to, and the way he had won before. California Chrome made a valiant effort but was no match for the top 3 runners when it mattered late in the race and succumbed to those “cowards” who dared to simply show up and do their due part in preventing the next Triple Crown. I’ll Have Another didn’t even make the gate after winning the first two legs. Big Brown was so much better than the field he faced that he couldn’t possibly lose if they ran 100 times, but they only ran once in 2008, and Kent Desormeaux infamously said “hear me roar he was not sore” after easing him at the top of the stretch. When Smarty Jones went into the gate as the heavy favorite, 120K packed into Belmont Park to witness history. He couldn’t lose this race, he especially couldn’t lose to Nick Zito and the sharp New York bettors who nabbed $74 winner Birdstone in an upset for the ages. It was all too real the year before when I stood on the rail of the far turn cheering for Funny Cide who probably outside of my personal allegiance to somebody I knew who owned the horse, had no serious shot. In 2002, War Emblem was the real deal and Victor Espinoza was deservingly confident, but when the gates opened he didn’t get the start he wanted which likely cost him any shot at winning as the 6-5 favorite, and instead Sarava paid $142.50, the biggest payout in Belmont Stakes history. In ’99, Charismatic who was a lock to win the Belmont at 8-5, sat the perfect trip and made his move around the far turn to take the lead, but he was bumped in the stretch run and it was over just like that. The year before that Real Quiet left everybody exactly that, in what was perhaps the most thrilling moment in Belmont history, well for a losing effort. Real Quiet led in the deep stretch with history on the line, but he tired late and was run down at the wire only to lose out in a photo and inquiry to Victory Gallop. Silver Charm had his try in ’97 and looked like he may just get there when Touch Gold used all of his pedigree in the final furlong to run him down to prolong history once again. I won’t pretend to have knowledge of the others that took the test of a champion and came up short but Sunday Silence, Alysheba, Pleasant Colony and Spectacular bid all did just that.

I personally won’t be wagering on history being made on June 6th but will rather bet on the more certain thing, that history won’t be made. While I’d be lying if I said that if the horse I will be wagering on is done at the top of the stretch that I won’t root for the Triple Crown, I strongly believe we will be left waiting once again. Perhaps Bob Baffert is due to win a Triple Crown though, or maybe Victor will be due in his 3rd attempt. Whatever you believe, understand the task at hand is far more difficult than the public believes each time they go to the post in the one and only Belmont Stakes. And if you think that racing wants a Triple Crown, think again, as I’m sure that any higher up in the racing world would much rather have the suspense every year of somebody winning the first two legs, only to let down the public once again knowing they will come back from more. After all, we all love the suspense, the chase, and the hype, but don’t forget that the pleasure of what we love is lost by wanting more, and while we all may want another Triple Crown winner, it may just make it less enjoyable for the next time.

Thanks for reading everyone. My thoughts on the Belmont will be shared as we get closer to June 6th on Twitter. Follow me @LegendBets if you wish, and if you really can’t wait any longer, I’m 99% sure I will be putting my $$ on Frosted to pull the mild upset in the Belmont Stakes.