KENTUCKY DERBY 141 CONTENDERS

AMERICAN PHAROAH (9-5 RANGE)

It’s easy to watch the Arkansas Derby and see what all the hype is about. Whether or not he lives up to all that hype on Saturday remains to be seen though. What’s unusual about the hype this year is that it seems to be much more respect from other barns than in years past when usually it’s a bunch of trainers and jockeys that can’t wait to take their shots against the favorite. This year it seems to be a mutual respect amongst the people who probably know best, and that consensus tells us he will undoubtedly be a heavy favorite, I imagine in the 9-5 range, no more than 2-1. Betting him in this race is something I won’t be doing but I hope everybody else does. I can see him winning obviously on talent alone but I have some serious question marks and I would venture to guess that even the Zayats and Baffert himself don’t know quite how good this runner is. Some have been saying he rated last time out which is not something I can admit to seeing. What I saw was a longshot with no chance to win the race sprinting clear and Victor doing what any jockey on the best horse would do, let him go and beat him later. I’m not sure he can rate and I do worry slightly about a possibly brisk and more importantly contested pace early on. That last 8th of a mile can be a long ways if you get contested throughout and that’s the test I would like to see him pass before I take short odds in a 20 horse field. The pedigree is not an issue in my opinion and all in all he probably has the best chance to win this race, for what that is worth.

DORTMUND (4-1 RANGE)

The Big Brown colt has done nothing wrong for Baffert who by all measures will go to post with the first and second choices in the race, and the lowest exacta probable of AP and Dortmund. While it’s hard to knock a horse that has won all 6 career starts you have to be objective. He has the win over the Churchill surface which is nothing to ignore, but you have to take it at face value. He beat a horse that day named Silver Ride, ever heard of him? Don’t worry you aren’t the only one, so while people try to convince you that a win over the course is important and it generally is just keep in mind it was an optional claimer as a 2yo at a track nobody brings good horses to anymore. I respect this colt’s pedigree but I’m not sure he’s close to as good as his record. Winning races is always a positive, and grinding out wins with grit is another positive quality, but doing that to beat much inferior opposition is not a positive and in my opinion is a big negative. He did beat Firing Line twice by a head who will also be in this derby field with an outside shot but at least that one will be 15-1 or more, not 9-2. All in all in my opinion Baffert won’t run 1st and 2nd and American Pharoah to me is the much more likely winner than this one is. I’m not sure we’ve seen his best yet and I do respect the connections and his ability alone, but I personally couldn’t take 9-2 on him in this group even if he is one of the main contenders.

CARPE DIEM (6-1 RANGE)

I would say this is the best horse in the field that nobody is talking about, which generally is a good thing. Pletcher’s track record in this race leaves one hesitant to back any of his runners. This year is no different as he is set to saddle 3 for this year’s run for the roses, but with his lone win coming by the way of Super Saver who was a heavy Derby favorite it’s tough to love his horses. The positive thing is that this horse is being overlooked and he may be as talented as any of his competitors in this race and the price may be a more than fair 6 or 8-1 range. I won’t go as far as saying this is Pletcher’s best shot as we will get to his one of his other contenders later on down the page but. Velazquez leaned in this direction when he had the choice though and that counts for something as he sides with the more experienced of the Pletcher runners. He will be making his 3rd start of his 3YO season and I think if he improves again he will be more than a handful for the rest of the field and could present himself as a nice overlay considering the strength of the top portion of this year’s derby field. I don’t think the distance will be an issue at all and perhaps his running style will give him a shot to strut his stuff in deep stretch. His funky way running motion will turn some people off as well but I suppose whatever it takes to get the job done is acceptable.

MUBTAAHIJ (8-1 RANGE)

Since the UAE Derby I’ve had this horse labeled as the wild card if he makes the trip. Visually as impressive race as you’ll ever see for a horse that early as a 3YO was his UAE Derby win. The problem is that field just doesn’t seem to stack up to the one he faces today. He’ll likely need his best race ever to compete and that may not be good enough even. I have tinkered with the idea of using him on top in some exotics because of my respect for the connections sending him over here (never missed ticket coming over here has Michael de Kock), but I just can’t see him getting a dream trip like he has in the last two. So against lesser horses with a perfect trip, he visually wowed with his win in Dubai but against tougher with a less than perfect trip he’s nothing more than one of the half dozen horses that can win, but is probably on the bottom of that list. The more you watch his race the more you’ll fall in love but don’t watch it again because you likely won’t be hearing from the announcer “he’s enjoying the run of the race” come Saturday. He kind of has that feel of a horse that’s got a shot to win but could also end up nowhere in sight so he’s tough to bet on but I wouldn’t be surprised I guess if he wins. The other question would be whether he handles the Churchill dirt as he ran on the tapeta or whatever they call that stuff. In the end he’s facing better horses with more dirt form and experience and while I think he’s one of 6 horses that can win the race, he’s not the one I will be betting on.

MATERIALITY (12-1 RANGE)

Same story every year, no unraced 2 year old has won the Kentucky Derby since Apollo in 1882. Materiality will try to buck that trend when Castellano climbs aboard for Pletcher this Saturday at Churchill. 1st time out as a 3YO he beat Stanford who is going to be overmatched if he runs on Saturday but is still a pretty decent horse. Last time out this one easily handled Upstart who was a major player early on for most peoples Derby predictions. I think we may have learned more about Upstart than this one in that race but that could be viewed as a positive for this one as he was able to handily beat the far more seasoned runner. I think he’s likely to improve again and if he does it could be bad news for the rest of this field, but if he doesn’t improve he can’t win so it’s a guessing game. He’s one of the 6 that can win this race and even though JV chose Carpe Diem Javier Castellano is more than capable of a rider and he’s got to win one of these sooner or later. He’ll make his 3rd start of the year on Saturday and we don’t have to look far for a Florida Derby winner to win this race as Orb did it in 2013.

FROSTED (10-1 RANGE)

This is the horse I landed on as Godolphin racing looks for that elusive Kentucky Derby win. While most will sit and talk about how weak the Wood Memorial field was others will look for an opportunity to get a horse at an inflated price because of that perception. Having picked Tencendur in the Wood Memorial I don’t think he beat as bad of field as most think, but more importantly the way he did it was visually impressive. He basically toyed with the field doing nothing early on and disposing of them with a convincing circling move to bury them underneath Rosario who by the way was riding him for the first time. I love to see when the best horse in the race is ridden like the best horse in the race and with all the question marks that arose after the Fountain of Youth collapse in the stretch this was a big step forward. It’s well documented the surgery he needed coming out of that FOY race and perhaps the change in running style, peering the blinkers back, and the rider change to Rosario was the winning trifecta this one needed to be put right back on the contenders list for this race. I think he handles Saturday’s distance as he pretty much ran that whole race on his own terms while never really being asked by Joel which suggests the added distance will be no issue. The other thing you’ll hear is that the Wood was a slow race which would normally raise some questions, but horses coming from off the slow pace generally don’t benefit from it and he was able to easily dispose of all the horses except Tencendur who should also make this field but never really threatened this one for the win. At the end of the day, he’s going to be as big of price as any of the 6 horses I consider to be contenders and that’s why he’s going to be my choice to win this year’s run for the roses. Obviously if he draws post 1 or maybe 20 I will reconsider but assuming that isn’t going to happen I will be taking my chances with Frosted this Saturday if I get the projected double digit odds.