HANDICAPPING THE PUBLIC PART TWO "THE ODDS BOARD"
HANDICAPPING THE PUBLIC
Part Two: The Odds Board
Perhaps the most useful tool to assess whether your horse is worth a wager in the first place, and how much you should wager is the odds board. You’ve heard the saying that the odds board is your friend, but friends can be hard to read so you can’t get caught off guard. That’s why it’s crucial as we talked about in Part One, to make your own morning line, or at least assess the morning line that is given to help determine what value is present for each race.
Determining value in horse racing is easily the most difficult thing to do. The odds board generally speaking does a good job, I mean after all they pick the winner 1/3rd the time. Granted it’s the shortest price that they come up with 1/3rd the time which almost guarantees long term bankroll shortage. Value is race specific, anybody that thinks you can just stick to one set of methods for all races and never change them is just fooling themselves. The fact of the matter is, the public creates overlays and underlays and finding them can really help you in determining which wagers to make. Personally, short priced horses just aren’t something I like to wager on in the WPS pools, but rather use them as keys in multi-races and in exotics that are often overlooked by people that think there horse is a lock, creating value in other pools.
The WPS pools are the easiest part of the odds board to read. Early money tends to be the easiest to read, because with today’s technology, the big bettors like those who threw $200K at Tonalist after everybody else wagered is pretty impossible to read and react against because you have no time. Keep in mind that most money shows up late in the pools, especially for featured races, but often times this money is already in the multi race pools which I take far more stock into than the regular odds. Without you the bettor creating your own morning line, it’d be really tough to assess whether the horse you like is at the right odds. I can live with horses that I think should be 6 or 8-1 going off at 7-2 and beating me for WP, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to miss out on the exactas and trifectas or the multi race wagers where they often aren’t as badly over bet. I rarely give out WP plays to my players because I want them to use their own best judgment based on the “odds board” which I can’t see when I send out picks before the first race starts. A perfect example from this past week at Saratoga was Winter Games in the opener of the meet. I had hoped to get 5-1 and use him under in the exotics because I thought his best fast track efforts made him competitive and maybe he could grind out a spot on the ticket somewhere. But when the odds board, also known as the public, let him slip to 14-1, nearly 3x the price I thought he’d be, a WP wager was a necessity. $31.00/$10.40 later, the odds board proved to make a big mistake, and not just in the WPS pools. The Double that started with Winter Games paid $242, and the Pick 3 that started with him and ended with a $2.40 winner returned $376 on $2 wagers respectively. Some of you are wondering well how would you know they were making a mistake as opposed to just cold on the board? And I don’t have the answer to that question as each case is specific, but generally speaking, horses in the 5 all the way up to 10-1 range, generally are the ones that go off the biggest overlays, and horses that are 5-1 or less tend to go off the biggest underlays.
That leads to the next part of reading the odds board which has to do with reading multi race pool will pays and probable odds. Perhaps the most useful tool to a bettor are the probable odds. I have a friend that frequents OTB, he is not a handicapper, but a math teacher who reads the odds board. He understands that he doesn’t need to handicap the race, because the public has already done it for him. By using all parts of the odds board, whether it be doubles, P3, P4, P5, P6 or any other probable odds or will pays, they all should have some impact on how you play. The best bettors in this game, don’t just swing in one pool, they swing in all the pools. You will find the more you read the odds board that the multi race pools tend to be more consistent all the way through than live odds. People who don’t want their money to show up for everyone to see it on the odds board, simply use alternative pools to be deceptive about it, because we all know when that 10-1 opens at 5-2, we need to know why and sometimes use our money to find out why. Exacta and Double Probable Odds are easily the best tool for assessing value, yet all the time, people play 4 horse Exacta Boxes on horses that have no chance of paying even 2-1 on their wager. If you go to OTB ever, and I don’t anymore but I used to hear people say that Exacta only paid $18? It tells you that before they run the race, what is so shocking?
Value in this game comes in many different forms, each specific to the person who is determining it. Some people have never met a favorite they liked, and some people love eating that chalk. I won’t say that either is wrong as I’m sure there are some people that have been successful and failures at both. I look at value on a race specific basis, which I would guess is against the norm. I think some people that pre-determine that they aren’t going to wager on certain things are simply limiting options and wasting money elsewhere instead of increasing value. We’ve all played against favorites and been wrong, and we’ve all liked favorites that stunk at one point, and same with long shots. To use an example, let’s say you didn’t like Crown Queen at 2-1 because you say, 2-1 is an automatic play against. Now, 2-1 isn’t something I’m going to throw money at, but in a 12 horse field, if you can single the best horse in the race, the exotics and multi race wagers can be rewarding. Crown Queen was the shortest double option with next race odds on choice Stopchargingmaria paying $14, and you knew this before they ran the race meaning you could have got 7-1 had you played that double straight. She was 2-1 on the board, and you knew Stopcharginmaria wasn’t going to be more than even money, so to get 7-1 on that type of wager, is serious value. Same thing with the exotics, especially when it comes to large fields. Kitten’s Queen, a Kitten’s Joy, and logical runner to go long on the turf ran 2nd to Crown Queen and the Exacta paid $71.50, meaning you could have wheeled the horse on top and bottom with all, and made a decent profit. So to some people, 2-1 was a play against horse, but to me, 2-1 was a gift, and tremendous value. To not get off topic anymore, the odds board is key to determining that value. Had we got 7-2 on Crown Queen like the ML suggested somehow, then a WP wager would have been very good value.
The last thing I’m going to touch on regarding the odds board is underlays and overlays. I mentioned the other day that there is a big difference between and underlay and a solid favorite and if you can determine which is which, you are on the right path towards cashing nice tickets. Often times, the best wagers you make are the ones you don’t make. It’s also important to understand you aren’t going to always be right, the sooner you realize that the better off you’ll be. Underlays are created by the public, and so are overlays. By creating your own ML each day, you will have a better understanding of what you think is an underlay and an overlay. I’ve compiled a checklist that I use daily to help determine underlays and overlays. Generally speaking underlays come in simple forms, like Pletcher 2YOs or certain trainers at certain tracks, and they are easy to spot. Then you have the “wise-guy” horses that create chaos on the odds board. A wise guy horse, is a horse that you look on paper and no matter what you do, you can’t make a case for the horse, but the money on him is showing up. These are classic underlays and avoiding them can be very beneficial. Including a horse in exotics just because he’s taking money is a slippery slope and while I can’t say that I don’t do it, I try to avoid changing my original opinions, but sometimes you just have to listen to the odds board, because remember, it’s your friend.
Below is a Check List that can be useful in determining value according to the odds board, it has to combine with your own opinions though, and has to coincide with what you thought when you make your own Morning Line, as you can’t just read the odds board without knowing what you are looking for.
HANDICAPPING THE PUBLIC CHECKLIST
WHO IS THE PUBLIC’S CHOICE GOING TO BE?
IS THE PUBLIC’S CHOICE CAPABLE OF WINNING?
DO HIS ODDS ASSESS HIS CAPABLITY OF WINNING?
IS THE PUBLIC CHOICE VULNERABLE IN ANY WAY?
IS THERE ANY OTHER LOGICAL HORSES CAPABLE OF WINNING?
ARE THEIR MULTIPLE HORSES CAPABLE OF WINNING?
DO THE ODDS ASSESS EACH HORSES CAPABILITY?
WHO ARE THE UNDERLAYS?
WHO ARE THE OVERLAYS?
I’ll continue to use the recent example of Crown Queen and answer all the questions listed as I would before each race. I thought Crown Queen would go off favored, so the answers are with that understanding.
WHO IS THE PUBLIC’S CHOICE GOING TO BE? CROWN QUEEN
IS THE PUBLIC’S CHOICE CAPABLE OF WINNING? YES, BUT NOT SO MUCH IF IT’S FIZZY PINK
DO HIS ODDS ASSESS HIS CAPABLITY OF WINNING? IF CROWN QUEEN GOES FAVORED, YES
IS THE PUBLIC CHOICE VULNERABLE IN ANY WAY? POSSIBLY BECAUSE OF POST 11, LOW WIN %
IS THERE ANY OTHER LOGICAL HORSES CAPABLE OF WINNING? POSSIBLY WITH THE RIGHT SETUP, KITTEN’S QUEEN SEEMS MOST LOGICAL IF THE FAVORITE LOSES
ARE THEIR MULTIPLE HORSES CAPABLE OF WINNING? IF THE FAVORITE GETS BEAT, 2369 ARE THE OTHERS
DO THE ODDS ASSESS EACH HORSES CAPABILITY? IN RELATION TO THE WINNER’S ODDS, THE BOARD SEEMS FAIR
WHO ARE THE UNDERLAYS? FIZZY PINK/SILKY
WHO ARE THE OVERLAYS? SABOULI, KITTEN’S QUEEN, PRINCESS MARA
Thanks for reading again this week, and we’ll continue the Handicapping the Public series next Tuesday.
Keith Rosintoski
Follow me on Twitter @LEGENDBETS