HANDICAPPING THE PUBLIC PART THREE "OVERLAYS AND UNDERLAYS"

HANDICAPPING THE PUBLIC

PART THREE: OVERLAYS AND UNDERLAYS

Betting horses is not an occupation for most, and that seems like a good place to start. My point is most of the people that bet on horses don’t care if they win or lose, just if they win. Most of them have financial stability already and have no problem throwing money at things with the hope of being right and being able to brag about it until the next race comes. What does this have to do with handicapping and wagering? I think it’s the main reason that less than 4% of people profit in this game, they simply don’t need to. Understanding this can go a long ways in helping you with the topic of our discussion today, overlays and underlays.

Underlays are very common, they take place in almost every race whether you realize it or not. It’s important to understand why these particular animals are taking the money they are taking, but sometimes it just makes no sense. In this past week, a horse named Rocket Time took money throughout the wagering, still to my disbelief. I tweeted that not only was he not going to win, but if he did that anybody who purchased my card would receive the next 3 days for FREE. Sure enough, he went to the gate at 2-1 and burned money faster than Cleveland fans could burn a Lebron Jersey a few years ago, but don’t they are forgiving and so are bettors. That horse to me was a gigantic underlay and one of the horses I used on all my tickets, Away Game, became a gigantic overlay and went on to win the race and pay $58 to win. Just because a horse takes money, doesn’t mean he has a better chance of winning, that’s just a myth. Often times these underlays do end up inflating the price of other horses. Using the standard deviation and no handicapping whatsoever, you would give each horse the same amount of chance of winning. If it was an 8 horse field, that chance is roughly 12%. Now if you take that same field assuming they are equal in ability, the odds would have to be similar. Obviously handicapping becomes the monkey wrench thrown into the equation because some people are betting the fastest horses, some people are betting closers, some betting jocks/trainers/owners and so on. All of these collective opinions create the odds on a toteboard and create the level of risk versus the reward that each horse represents, also known as underlays and overlays. The problem is, not many people weigh the risk against the reward. The post time favorite lost 29 times in a row this past week at Delmar. To me, after about the 8th or 9th one lost, there shouldn’t have even been a clear post time favorite, but he was due the next 20 or 21 times says the average bettor. Understand that underlays and overlays are created by the public. Overlays are often a byproduct of an underlay. In the Haskell, Untapable took all the money when the public was labeling her the next horse I won’t mention her in the same sentence with and I thought she raced okay and I used her on some tickets, but 9-5? The byproduct of that 9-5 was that you got arguably the best horse in the race and certainly the most accomplished, Bayern at a juicy 5-1, which was an overlay regardless of whether he won. The most common overlays come when a hot jockey/trainer combo team up at a particular track. Often times the public views 20-30% stats as locks and they take a horse that would be a fair wager if he paid $8 to win and make him 4-5. The difference between a good bet and an underlay is often unable to be seen until after they cross the finish line, but the similarities between an underlay and a bad bet are noticeable far before the race is run. For example, maidens facing winners for the first time can often be underlays and horses making huge class drops that aren’t characteristic can be as well. Both these horses can win, but do you need $6 to find out?

It all goes back to the same thing in the end, can you risk being right to make a smart wager? The fact is the public loses 2/3rds of the time, unless you are at Delmar this summer where it’s much more often than that. I personally am wrong far more often than I’m right, but I also skip far more races because of the prices on my horses than most people. I can watch a horse I picked cross the line first without wagering on him if the price isn’t right and not be upset. Believe it or not, the horse doesn’t care that you put money on him either, and even the great ones lose. Understanding that in the long run, these over bet horses aren’t going to make you a profit is just one of the elements of money management. I also can say to myself, I don’t know if this horse can win, but if his odds are that good I’m certainly willing to find out. Here’s a perfect recent example of that. Listed below is what Legend Bet Players got in the race I tweeted that Rocket Time wouldn’t’ win.

2 ROCKET TIME has beaten nobody and I can’t take short odds on him facing winners for the first time just because he beat a soft maiden group.

6 AWAY GAME is a crazy price and I don’t know if he can win but he’s going to hit this ticket and I’ll use him under in all exotics.

I picked Bay of Biscay in this race, but his odds were unplayable in WP pools in my opinion and this wasn’t to my surprise, which is why I suggested this to players with the risk/reward in mind knowing that the horse I didn’t like was going to take lots of money, and possibly miss the ticket.

RACE 5

My Top Choice is 5 BAY OF BISCAY

Trifecta 5/368/134678 368/5/134678

You could say I was wrong because Bay of Biscay didn’t win, but I wish I could be wrong on my way to the IRS window in every single race.

$2 Trifecta

6-5-3

$2,236.00

Now obviously with hindsight, this turned out to be a pretty good wager, but my point is, even if it lost I still believe I made the right decision considering the odds of all the horses. If the 2 ROCKET TIME won, I would have given out 3 days of picks for FREE like I promised, but I would have felt the same about the people that wagered on that horse too, and would have slept just fine. On the other hand, had I said to myself, well that horse is taking all the money even though my belief was that he couldn’t win, I’d have lost a little sleep if I wagered on him.

Paying attention to betting patterns, even the most obvious ones, is one of the keys to finding underlays and overlays far before the rest of the public gets to know them. Every single day in this game I find overlays and underlays long before the odds board even shows us where they are. To give another example, Kimmel doesn’t do that well with first time starters at Saratoga. He sent out a Street Boss firster on opening weekend to the tune of 11-1 to those who paid attention to pedigree. The next day he had a firster that wasn’t exactly a rare breed that went off at 9-5 surely because the people who didn’t bet the horse he sent out the day before wanted to redeem themselves. Needless to say he didn’t win, and all he did was create an overlay on the winner. George Anthony who now works at Pocono Downs always said to me and I’m sure others, don’t go to the funeral if you don’t go to the wedding, referring to people that over bet horses after they are big prices which is the most common time we see overlays and underlays in this game.

It’s about perception in horse racing just like in any other game with luck and chance. Take poker for example and relate it to horse racing. Most of the time, you don’t want that pair of 8s as the big blind that gets checked all the way around the table, but if the flop comes 2-3-7 off suit, you are forced to play the hand you are dealt. In a song written by Kenny Rogers, he said you have to know when to hold em, know when to fold em, know when to walk away, and know when to run. I find it ironic that the title of his song is “The Gambler” because if you knew this stuff, you wouldn’t exactly be known as a gambler. The same applies for horse racing as the second you start to chase this game, you will find it chasing you right back your wallet to deposit more money. The public isn’t as difficult to figure out as one would think as they generally act the same throughout no matter what they are doing. In betting horses, that kind of thinking creates overlays and underlays. The public acts in the hope that they will achieve the desired result even if it’s unknown prior to the start, this is known as gambling. By doing your homework early using predictive intelligence, you can assess the public’s decisions and determine how risky that level of uncertainty is and weigh it against the reward of the desired result. In other words, find overlays and underlays.

In the end, it all goes back to the first part of this series relating to the Morning Lines and continues into the second part dealing with the Odds Board. By simply creating your own ML, and then reading the odds board, you will learn to find overlays and underlays in every single race. All you have to do after that is wager and be right some of the time, if only that were as easy as finding overlays and underlays.

BY KEITH ROSINTOSKI

Follow Me @LEGENDBETS on Twitter

#partthree